Nigeria must win both Tanzania qualifiers to keep AFCON 2027 hopes in their own hands

Nigeria’s Super Eagles need maximum points from their two November meetings with co-hosts Tanzania to move to nine points in Group L and set up a decisive final match against Guinea-Bissau in March.

The Super Eagles have three points from their opening two matches, having beaten Madagascar 2-1 in Uyo before losing 3-0 away to Guinea-Bissau.

Guinea-Bissau currently lead the group with six points and a goal difference of +5. Madagascar and Tanzania have one point each.

Tanzania will qualify for the finals as co-hosts, meaning only the highest-placed team among Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar will claim the group’s remaining qualifying place.

Soccernet published the Group L standings before the Tanzania fixtures earlier this week. Nigeria’s position after those matches will determine the possibilities for the rest of the campaign.

What Nigeria have left to play

Nigeria’s remaining schedule consists of the two Tanzania games in mid-November, an away fixture against Madagascar and a home meeting with Guinea-Bissau on 28 March 2027.

The March match will be Nigeria’s only remaining game against the current group leaders. Winning both Tanzania fixtures would take the Super Eagles to nine points, three more than Guinea-Bissau have now, and make the meeting in March central to the qualifying race.

Anything less than six points from the November double-header would leave Nigeria relying on results in the group as well as their own performances.

Victor Osimhen is reported by Legit.ng to be returning to the squad after missing the previous qualifiers because of a right adductor and groin strain.

Kelechi Iheanacho is also reportedly back, according to a report from OwnGoal Nigeria.

Defensive record adds pressure

Nigeria have gone five matches without keeping a clean sheet, a run highlighted by Soccernet before the Tanzania games.

That defensive sequence leaves less room for dropped points. Nigeria’s goal difference has already been damaged by the 3-0 defeat in Bissau, making every further concession potentially significant as the group develops.

The two matches against Tanzania therefore represent the most important stage of Nigeria’s qualifying campaign so far. Six points would place the Super Eagles on nine and preserve a clear route to the decisive March fixture.

Failure to win both games, however, would make qualification dependent on the results involving Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar.