Super Falcons permutations: What do Nigeria need to qualify for the Paris 2024 Olympic?

By Oyediji Oluwaseun Babatunde

As the decisive return leg match of the Paris 2024 Olympics Qualifiers looms between Nigeria’s senior women’s national team and South Africa, it’s crucial to delve into the potential outcomes that could secure Randy Waldrum’s side a spot in the women’s football event of the tournament.

With a narrow 1-0 advantage over African champions South Africa from the first leg in Abuja last Friday, Rasheedat Ajibade’s first-half penalty has given the Super Falcons a slim lead heading into Tuesday’s showdown at the Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Pretoria.

Here’s NigeriaFootball.ng‘s breakdown of the permutations needed by the Super Falcons to secure qualification:

1. Victory in Pretoria:

A win in any form over Banyana Banyana will guarantee the Super Falcons a return to the Olympics’ women’s football event.

Nigeria will approach the match aiming to maintain their unbeaten record against South Africa on their home soil, having won five of their previous encounters in South Africa and drawing two.

2. Draw or Stalemate:

Should the match end in a draw, the Super Falcons will qualify for the Olympics for the first time since Beijing 2008.

Historically, Nigeria has managed to hold South Africa to draws on five occasions, including in crucial Olympic qualifiers. Notably, the 2018 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations final saw Nigeria emerge victorious 4-3 on penalties after a goalless draw in regulation time.

3. Victory on Penalties:

In the event of a narrow defeat for Nigeria, resulting in the match being tied on aggregate, a penalty shootout would ensue to determine the winner.

A similar scenario unfolded in the 2018 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations final, where the Super Falcons edged South Africa 4-3 on penalties after a goalless draw in regular time.

Avoiding defeat in South Africa would extend Nigeria’s unbeaten run in the country to eight games, showcasing their resilience and dominance in this fixture over the years.

As the Super Falcons prepare for this crucial encounter, the stakes are high, and all eyes will be on their performance as they seek to secure their ticket to Paris 2024.