Tunisia face uphill battle to reach 2027 Africa Cup of Nations after Libya defeat

Tunisia’s hopes of qualifying for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations have suffered a major setback after a 2-0 home defeat by Libya left them without a win from their opening three matches.

The tournament will be staged in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda from 19 June to 17 July next year, with 24 teams due to take part, including the three host nations.

Friday’s loss was particularly damaging for Tunisia, who suffered their biggest home defeat in the history of their Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaigns. It was also the first time they had fallen two goals behind in a home qualifying match for the competition.

The result ended a run of more than 25 years without Tunisia losing a qualifying match by a two-goal margin. Their previous defeat by that score came on 24 March 2001, when they were beaten 2-0 by Morocco in Rabat.

Tunisia have also made the worst start in their history in Africa Cup of Nations qualifying. They have taken only two points from a possible nine after drawing twice and losing once in their first three games.

Group H situation

The result leaves Tunisia fourth in Group H, with three matches remaining in the second round of qualifying.

The Carthage Eagles are two points behind leaders Uganda, who have played one match fewer, and two behind Libya, who moved into second place after recording their first victory.

Tunisia are level on points with Botswana, who are third ahead of their meeting with Uganda on Saturday.

The qualifying format means the top two teams in each of the 12 groups normally progress directly to the finals. However, in a group containing one of the host nations, the host qualifies automatically alongside the highest-ranked team on points.

That rule applies to Group H because Uganda are one of the three countries hosting the 2027 tournament. Uganda have therefore already secured their place, leaving the remaining teams competing for the group’s other qualifying spot.

What Tunisia need

Tunisia’s position would become considerably more difficult if Botswana beat Uganda on Saturday. Such a result would take Botswana to five points, three clear of Tunisia.

In that scenario, Tunisia would have to win all three of their remaining matches to reach the finals. They face Libya again next Tuesday before meeting Uganda and Botswana in March next year.

Three victories would take Tunisia to 11 points. No other team could finish above that total apart from Uganda, who are already qualified.

Botswana could also reach 11 points if they beat Uganda home and away and then defeat Libya. However, Tunisia would hold the advantage on head-to-head record if they beat Botswana in the final round, especially as the first meeting between the sides ended in a 2-2 draw.