Barcelona favoured by Opta for El Clasico, but recent history offers Real Madrid hope

Barcelona have been given a clear statistical advantage over Real Madrid ahead of Sunday’s El Clasico, although the record from their recent meetings shows that pre-match predictions have often been misleading.

The two rivals meet at Spotify Camp Nou in the headline fixture of matchweek 10 in La Liga. According to Opta’s win-probability model, Barcelona have a 54.4% chance of victory, compared with 26.1% for Real Madrid. The remaining percentage represents the possibility of a draw.

Opta published the figures on 23 October 2026, highlighting the contrast between the teams’ current league records and the pattern of recent Clasicos.

Barcelona’s position as favourites is supported by their perfect start to the campaign. The Catalan side lead the table with 27 points from their opening nine matches, while Real Madrid are third on 21 points.

The difference is also reflected in the goalscoring figures. Barcelona have the strongest attack in the competition, with 39 goals, while Real Madrid are second with 23 16 fewer than their opponents. Both teams have conceded nine goals.

However, the recent history of this fixture suggests that Barcelona’s statistical edge may not be decisive. In the past 11 meetings between the clubs in La Liga since 2021, the team with the lower pre-match win probability has gone on to win four times.

Those victories have been evenly divided, with Barcelona and Real Madrid each recording two wins in matches where they were rated less likely to succeed.

The pattern provides Real Madrid with grounds for optimism despite their lower rating in Opta’s calculations. It also underlines that Barcelona’s stronger league position, superior attacking record and 54.4% win probability do not guarantee victory before the match begins.

The figures therefore point to Barcelona as the likely winners on paper, while the recent record between the two sides demonstrates how quickly expectations can be overturned in one of football’s most closely watched fixtures.