France face Nations League exit as Zidane’s side need result against Turkey

France’s hopes of finishing top of their Nations League group have become a fight to avoid elimination after a 3-1 defeat by Italy.

Zinedine Zidane’s side travelled to face Italy on Thursday knowing victory would secure first place in Group A. Instead, they surrendered an early lead given to them by Michael Olise and suffered their first defeat since Zidane became manager at San Siro.

France remain second on 10 points, with a goal difference of +3. Italy lead the group on the same number of points but have a superior goal difference of +5.

France still hold the advantage before Sunday’s final group match against Turkey in Bordeaux. A draw would guarantee their place in the quarter-finals, regardless of the result between Italy and Belgium.

Draw enough, defeat could prove costly

Even a defeat by Turkey would not necessarily eliminate France. They would still progress if Belgium fail to beat Italy in the match being played at the same time in Brussels.

However, France will be knocked out if they lose to Turkey and Belgium win against Italy.

That combination would lift Belgium to 12 points and send them through as group winners. France and Italy would then both remain on 10 points, with the second qualifying place decided by their head-to-head record.

Under the Nations League regulations, the first tiebreaker between teams level on points is the number of points gained in their matches against each other.

Italy would have the advantage in that comparison. They have taken four points from their two games against France, winning one and drawing the other, while France have collected only one point.

Italy would therefore finish second and qualify for the quarter-finals, with France dropping to third and being eliminated at the group stage.

Mbappe return could boost France

The equation is straightforward for Zidane and his players: avoid defeat against Turkey and qualification is secured. A loss, however, would leave their fate dependent on the result of Italy’s meeting with Belgium.

The match in Bordeaux could also see the return of France captain Kylian Mbappe. He scored the winning goal in the first meeting with Turkey, and Zidane is waiting to discover whether he can call on his captain for the decisive fixture.

France’s elimination scenario is therefore:

– France lose to Turkey.
– Belgium beat Italy.
– France finish third behind Italy on the head-to-head tiebreaker.