Guinea-Bissau held by Madagascar as Nigeria’s qualifying hopes receive boost

Guinea-Bissau were held to a 1-1 draw by Madagascar in Antananarivo on Thursday, giving Nigeria an opportunity to close the gap at the top of Group L in the AFCON 2027 qualifiers.

The result ended Guinea-Bissau’s winning start to the campaign, although they remain unbeaten and move on to seven points from three matches. Nigeria, who face Tanzania in Uyo on Friday, have three points from two games.

Madagascar took the lead when Warren Caddy scored in the 59th minute. They appeared set to claim a significant victory before Galatasaray midfielder Renato Nhaga equalised with a long-range effort in the closing stages. Tombie Vieira was credited with the assist in CAF’s report.

Madagascar are third with two points from three matches. Tanzania have already qualified as co-hosts, meaning the remaining place at the finals is being contested by Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria and Madagascar.

Nigeria can cut deficit

The draw means Nigeria now have a clear chance to reduce Guinea-Bissau’s advantage when they meet Tanzania in Uyo.

A victory would take Nigeria to six points after three matches, leaving them one point behind the leaders. A draw would keep them three points adrift, while defeat would put them four points behind Guinea-Bissau.

Madagascar’s position also changed significantly during the match. Caddy’s goal put the Barea on course for their first win and would have lifted them above Nigeria on points. Nhaga’s late equaliser instead preserved Guinea-Bissau’s lead and kept Madagascar in contention on two points.

The result is particularly important for Nigeria because Guinea-Bissau had won their opening two matches, including a 3-0 victory over Nigeria in Bissau. Had they secured a third successive win, they would have established a six-point lead before Nigeria played this week.

Nigeria’s goal difference is inferior after the heavy defeat in Bissau, making the margin of victory against Tanzania potentially important. A comfortable win would strengthen their position more than a narrow success, especially if Guinea-Bissau defeat Madagascar at home on Tuesday.

Guinea-Bissau and Nigeria will meet again on Tuesday 17 November, with Guinea-Bissau hosting that fixture. Before then, Madagascar will return to face the group leaders in Bissau, a match which could prove as influential to Nigeria’s prospects as their own game against Tanzania.

Guinea-Bissau will take confidence from extending their unbeaten record, having already defeated Tanzania and Nigeria. However, Madagascar’s late goal denied them the result that would have placed them in a commanding position at the top of the group.