Nigeria’s AFCON 2027 hopes hinge on Guinea-Bissau’s Madagascar double-header

Guinea-Bissau, the Group L leaders Nigeria must overtake to reach AFCON 2027, face Madagascar twice during this international window without striker Franculino Dju.

The Trabzonspor forward has been omitted from Emiliano Te’s 26-man squad because of injury, leaving the Djurtus without one of their key attacking options as they defend top spot.

Guinea-Bissau have six points from their opening two matches, having beaten Tanzania 2-0 and Nigeria 3-0 in Bissau. The Super Eagles are second on three points, while Madagascar and Tanzania have one point apiece.

Tanzania are co-hosts and have already qualified, meaning only one place remains available in Group L. The main contest is therefore between Guinea-Bissau and Nigeria, although Madagascar remain in contention.

As a result, the Djurtus’ two matches are being followed as closely in Nigeria as the Super Eagles’ own fixtures against Tanzania.

Dju missing as Te makes two changes

Dju, 22, is the most notable absentee, with Pan Africa Football reporting his omission on 4 November.

Te has added two new players to his squad: AS FAR Rabat defender Fallou Mendy and SC Braga forward Flinto Costa. Their inclusion gives Guinea-Bissau fresh options as they attempt to maintain their early advantage in the group.

The first meeting with Madagascar will take place in Morocco, where Madagascar are the nominal home side. The return fixture is scheduled for the Estadio Nacional 24 de Setembro in Bissau.

Madagascar chasing first victory

Madagascar have collected one point from their first two games. They lost 2-1 to Nigeria in Uyo before drawing 1-1 with Tanzania.

Their 24-man squad, announced on 6 November, includes midfielders Marco Ilaimaharitra and Rayan Raveloson, defender Thomas Fontaine, and forwards Warren Caddy, Hakim Abdallah and Roman Ferber.

The Barea need a first win to keep their qualification hopes alive. Another setback would leave them at serious risk of falling out of the race, increasing the importance of both games against Guinea-Bissau.

For Guinea-Bissau, the absence of a 22-year-old striker playing in the Turkish top flight is a significant loss, particularly in a window that could shape the group. Te’s decision to call up Mendy and Costa suggests he is seeking different attacking solutions rather than a direct replacement for Dju.

The calculations are straightforward for Nigeria. If Guinea-Bissau win both matches, they will move to 12 points. The Super Eagles would then be unable to draw level, regardless of their results against Tanzania, and would enter March at least three points behind.

Every point Madagascar take from the Djurtus would improve Nigeria’s position ahead of the March decider and make the tie-break rules more favourable to the Super Eagles.