Nigeria face must-win Egypt clash to keep WAFCON title defence alive

Nigeria’s Super Falcons must beat Egypt on Wednesday to guarantee their place in the knockout stages of the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations, as their bid to retain the title hangs in the balance.

The defending champions suffered a surprise 3-2 defeat by tournament debutants Malawi in their opening Group C match before recovering with a 1-0 victory over Zambia, despite playing most of that game with 10 players.

Justin Madugu’s side now face a decisive final group fixture against Egypt, with the matches in the group scheduled to kick off at the same time.

Nigeria have dominated this competition for decades. They have won a record 10 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations titles – or 12 if the 1991 and 1995 editions are included – and have never previously failed to reach the knockout stages.

A group-stage exit would therefore be a historic setback, with the Super Falcons at risk of becoming the first defending champions in WAFCON history to be eliminated before the quarter-finals.

What Nigeria need to qualify

The equation is simplest if Nigeria win. That result would take them to six points and secure their place in the quarter-finals.

If Malawi beat Zambia, Nigeria would finish second behind Malawi. If Zambia win, both Nigeria and Zambia would end the group stage on six points.

However, teams level on points are separated first by their head-to-head record under the tournament regulations. Nigeria beat Zambia 1-0 in their earlier meeting, meaning the Super Falcons would finish above the Copper Queens regardless of their overall goal difference.

A draw would leave Nigeria on four points. They would still qualify as Group C runners-up if Malawi avoid defeat against Zambia.

But a Zambia victory would move the Copper Queens to six points, leaving Nigeria on four and potentially relying on their record being good enough to qualify as one of the tournament’s best third-placed teams. That would leave their fate outside their own control.

Nigeria would be eliminated if they lose, although the exact outcome would depend on the result between Malawi and Zambia, as well as the relevant head-to-head and goal-difference calculations.

Egypt would also move to three points with a victory. If Zambia lose to Malawi, three teams could finish level on points. Under CAF regulations, their positions would then be decided through the competition’s ranking criteria.

Egypt’s chances of qualifying are extremely remote. They have lost both matches so far, conceding nine goals and scoring once. Under the head-to-head regulations, they would need to beat Nigeria by at least 11 goals and hope Zambia lose to Malawi.

Nigeria rely on experience

The Super Falcons’ record against North African opposition offers encouragement. They have never lost to a North African team in open play at WAFCON, recording nine previous meetings against sides from the region.

Their only defeat came on penalties against hosts Morocco in the 2022 semi-finals, after the match had finished 1-1.

Nigeria and Egypt have met only once previously at the tournament. Nigeria won that match 6-0 in the 1998 edition, which remains Egypt’s heaviest defeat by the Super Falcons in the competition.

Egypt have never drawn a WAFCON match, winning or losing every game they have played.

Their return to the tournament after a decade has been difficult. They have already conceded more goals in their opening two matches than at any previous edition, with six of the nine goals arriving after the 60-minute mark. Eman Hassan’s goal against Malawi was their only positive moment in front of goal and their first of the tournament.

Nigeria will again look to Asisat Oshoala, the six-time African Women’s Player of the Year, after she scored the winner against Zambia.

That goal was Oshoala’s 15th in the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations and made her the first Nigerian to score at five different editions of the competition. Nigeria have won eight of the nine WAFCON matches in which she has scored; the exception was a 1-1 draw with Ghana in 2016.

The victory over Zambia restored confidence in the Nigerian camp after the opening-day disappointment. Captain Rasheedat Ajibade led the response, goalkeeper Chiamaka Nnadozie delivered another assured performance and Michelle Alozie was named Player of the Match.

Oshoala’s goal completed the recovery after Oluwatosin Demehin was sent off, leaving Nigeria to play more than half of the match with 10 players.

Now the defending champions face one final test. Victory over Egypt would preserve Nigeria’s unbeaten record in the group stage, keep alive their pursuit of an unprecedented 11th WAFCON title and maintain their place among Africa’s last teams standing.